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Post by Pinda on Apr 1, 2021 18:45:11 GMT -5
Well, just a week after the elections there was a chain events that lead leaks from the coalition negotiations and apparently someone tried to promote a Member of Parliament that damaged the last coalition by exposing a major scandal. That promotion was basically meant to remove him from Parliament so he would no longer be a threat. When someone asked the current PM if that leak came from his office he denied it. Public opinion turned against the party leader of the MP in question. But today they revealed the full notes and it turns out it all came from the PM. So now it is 2 AM and they are still debating... soon they will vote on whether to remove our PM, who has bene in control for 11 years and actually won during the elections last month. If he is removed he could still return for the next coalition... but that seems unlikely. So after winning seats 2 weeks ago his reign could just end in the most random way right now... and there may be new elections that could completely shake up the political landscape. The Prime Minister IS his party, without him it will collapse. This is history in the making. I have been watching TV all day.  |
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Post by Pinda on Apr 1, 2021 18:48:12 GMT -5
Ah never mind, his old coalition partners just came to the rescue by calling for a slightly less harsh condemnation which would allow him to stay in power... But this is political suicide for both of them to be honest...
This is going to be interesting... if only one MP breaks party lines the chaos would be complete.
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Post by Maverick-Jedi-Valen on Apr 2, 2021 4:50:09 GMT -5
Ah never mind, his old coalition partners just came to the rescue by calling for a slightly less harsh condemnation which would allow him to stay in power... But this is political suicide for both of them to be honest... This is going to be interesting... if only one MP breaks party lines the chaos would be complete. Speaking as a total outsider, would you say this political suicide is really bad, or a good shot in the arm? |
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Post by Maverick-Jedi-Valen on Apr 12, 2021 15:08:40 GMT -5
Been hearing about one of the largest parties in Germany talking about leaving the EU and it's got me imagining the utter minefield that would occur if that actually happened |
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Post by Pinda on Apr 12, 2021 16:52:32 GMT -5
Been hearing about one of the largest parties in Germany talking about leaving the EU and it's got me imagining the utter minefield that would occur if that actually happened Probably AfD. The same party that wanted to demolish the Holocaust monument in Berlin... That tell you all you need to know about what kind of party they are. They are the fourth party in Germany right now, but still only polling at about 11% and no one wants to work with them, so they won't get anything done. Right now, three parties are polling better. CDU (Merkel's party) which is status quo. SPD, which is like Labour in the UK and pro-EU. And the CDU's main competitor this time seems to be the Green Party which is apparently in favour of European Federalism in Germany. Then there is still the FDP and Die Linke trailing the AfD, and they are both pro-EU as well. If any country is going to leave the EU Germany is at the bottom of the list. They are the most pro-EU country pretty much. But yeah, if they do leave it will be a mess and the EU can basically dissolve itself. Honestly, the only country that I could see leaving in the near future is France. Le Pen is trailing Macron by only a few percent in the election polls... She used to be in favour of Frexit, but she has abandoned that position (among other extreme ones) because it was not popular. But I am afraid that if she wins she will just switch back to her old extremist platform and go ahead with Frexit anyway... and even if she doesn't do that she will likely sabotage the EU. |
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Post by Maverick-Jedi-Valen on Apr 13, 2021 5:47:11 GMT -5
Been hearing about one of the largest parties in Germany talking about leaving the EU and it's got me imagining the utter minefield that would occur if that actually happened Probably AfD. The same party that wanted to demolish the Holocaust monument in Berlin... That tell you all you need to know about what kind of party they are. They are the fourth party in Germany right now, but still only polling at about 11% and no one wants to work with them, so they won't get anything done. Right now, three parties are polling better. CDU (Merkel's party) which is status quo. SPD, which is like Labour in the UK and pro-EU. And the CDU's main competitor this time seems to be the Green Party which is apparently in favour of European Federalism in Germany. Then there is still the FDP and Die Linke trailing the AfD, and they are both pro-EU as well. If any country is going to leave the EU Germany is at the bottom of the list. They are the most pro-EU country pretty much. But yeah, if they do leave it will be a mess and the EU can basically dissolve itself. Honestly, the only country that I could see leaving in the near future is France. Le Pen is trailing Macron by only a few percent in the election polls... She used to be in favour of Frexit, but she has abandoned that position (among other extreme ones) because it was not popular. But I am afraid that if she wins she will just switch back to her old extremist platform and go ahead with Frexit anyway... and even if she doesn't do that she will likely sabotage the EU. Yeah, apparently it is AfD making rumblings about it. To be honest, even if they somehow came to power, I'd say seeing Belgium leave the EU was more likely than Germany. So really, I don't think anyone in the EU should feel that threatened. She might not though. If she were to be elected and go back to her old ways, then it has a big risk of torpedoing any reelection chances. Nevertheless, I'd be a bit shocked if she played nice with the EU. |
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Post by Pinda on Jun 12, 2021 5:40:10 GMT -5
Biden has positively surprised me in terms of his international policies (I don't know what he is doing domestically). I thought he would just be better than Trump but still kind of shitty. But countering China's influence with a Western Belt and road Initiative, as he suggested at the G7 yesterday is amazing. I have said it before, but the West needs to counter China with soft power, or democracy is fucked. Since I had no faith the Us would do anything like that my hopes were on the EU becoming a stronger actor (and they still are) but I guess the US can play a part as well now.
Biden donating 500 million vaccines (on top of the 300 million the EU has already donated) to third world countries is also great for getting them on our side. I feel like a new Cold War between Democracy and Authoritarianism is just around the corner, we need every ally we can get.
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Post by Newan on Jun 12, 2021 10:04:24 GMT -5
Biden has positively surprised me in terms of his international policies (I don't know what he is doing domestically). I thought he would just be better than Trump but still kind of shitty. But countering China's influence with a Western Belt and road Initiative, as he suggested at the G7 yesterday is amazing. I have said it before, but the West needs to counter China with soft power, or democracy is fucked. Since I had no faith the Us would do anything like that my hopes were on the EU becoming a stronger actor (and they still are) but I guess the US can play a part as well now. Biden donating 500 million vaccines (on top of the 300 million the EU has already donated) to third world countries is also great for getting them on our side. I feel like a new Cold War between Democracy and Authoritarianism is just around the corner, we need every ally we can get. I haven’t followed to closely but is corona getting worse in the third world? Last I checked it was surprisingly almost irrelevant in large portions of Africa, most likely from lack of travelers from corona heavy nations. As for domestically there’s running jokes that Biden (and Trudeau in Canada) take the “stay at home” order too seriously and don’t do anything. For a largely Democratic ran government, they haven’t really accomplished much. I know Biden has done some pretty controversial things with his Syrian reengagements and his Mexico border policies. I follow Alexandria Oscasio- Cortez (AOC for short), she’s basically a young female Bernie Sanders that has a very large national following for a New York rep and will likely run for president at some point but even she is pretty critical of a lot of Biden’s moves and that they aren’t doing enough with their majority. |
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Post by Newan on Feb 24, 2022 13:52:33 GMT -5
Pinda what’s the mood like now with the Ukraine stuff? Over here no one’s really paying attention yet… still trying to stop our little failed uprising of unvaccinated truckers. The capital is still in martial law from the protests lol
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Post by Newan on Feb 24, 2022 13:59:40 GMT -5
It sounds like the best news of it all is that a lot of Russians do not support this and it’s mainly Putin and his inner circle acting on their own accord. As long as the west plays it right Russia will probably collapse in on itself.
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Post by Pinda on Feb 24, 2022 14:57:10 GMT -5
Pinda what’s the mood like now with the Ukraine stuff? Over here no one’s really paying attention yet… still trying to stop our little failed uprising of unvaccinated truckers. The capital is still in martial law from the protests lol It is getting A LOT of attention. We have a public newsbroadcaster in the Netherlands, and they usually only create a new news program every few hours which then airs for 20 minutes and then we get other programs. Sometimes when something exceptional happens (like the 2015 terror attacks in Paris) you might see an extra broadcast that lasts a few hours at most. Today they have been airing non-stop. We even got people talking about World War III on TV even though Dutch TV is not that alarmist generally. All online news sites have frontpages that are just about Russia and Ukraine. So yeah, this is getting a lot of attention. This is the first major international armed conflict in Europe since World War II (the Yugoslav wars were civil wars). So this is a really big deal. Besides, Ukraine is neighbor to several EU countries which means they basically border the Netherlands as the EU doesn't have internal borders. The Defcon status for Europe has been lowered to 2, which is Cuban Missile Crisis levels of danger. Due to Putin's speech the Baltics and Poland think they are next, and both the EU and NATO Treaties oblige a military intervention from the rest of Europe if that happens. And that would almost inevitably lead to nuclear war... I wouldn't be too worried if not for the fact that Putin is old and has way too much power. He might just decide that he doesn't give a fuck anymore and just sees how far he can push it and risk nuclear war. Maybe he will actually invade NATO/EU countries to see if we are actually willing to risk a nuclear holocaust for them. |
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Post by Pinda on Feb 24, 2022 14:58:35 GMT -5
It sounds like the best news of it all is that a lot of Russians do not support this and it’s mainly Putin and his inner circle acting on their own accord. As long as the west plays it right Russia will probably collapse in on itself. They believe about half the Russians supported the recognition of the two republic, but the other half will keep their mouths shut. The support for a full-scale invasion may be even lower. But as long as Putin's inner circle and China keep supporting him I doubt it will matter. |
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Post by Newan on Feb 24, 2022 16:25:04 GMT -5
It sounds like the best news of it all is that a lot of Russians do not support this and it’s mainly Putin and his inner circle acting on their own accord. As long as the west plays it right Russia will probably collapse in on itself. They believe about half the Russians supported the recognition of the two republic, but the other half will keep their mouths shut. The support for a full-scale invasion may be even lower. But as long as Putin's inner circle and China keep supporting him I doubt it will matter. I think we live in an age where people just want to work, relax and not have to worry about these kinds of things though. If they put some really aggressive sanctions on Russia to the point where is destroys the livelihoods of the average person I can’t imagine this will continue. China obviously could back them significantly but China is an exporter country, if much of the world refuses to buy from China their economy starts to cave as well. And a lot of Chinese industry from my understanding is owned by European and American companies. |
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Post by Newan on Feb 24, 2022 16:32:26 GMT -5
Pinda what’s the mood like now with the Ukraine stuff? Over here no one’s really paying attention yet… still trying to stop our little failed uprising of unvaccinated truckers. The capital is still in martial law from the protests lol It is getting A LOT of attention. We have a public newsbroadcaster in the Netherlands, and they usually only create a new news program every few hours which then airs for 20 minutes and then we get other programs. Sometimes when something exceptional happens (like the 2015 terror attacks in Paris) you might see an extra broadcast that lasts a few hours at most. Today they have been airing non-stop. We even got people talking about World War III on TV even though Dutch TV is not that alarmist generally. All online news sites have frontpages that are just about Russia and Ukraine. So yeah, this is getting a lot of attention. This is the first major international armed conflict in Europe since World War II (the Yugoslav wars were civil wars). So this is a really big deal. Besides, Ukraine is neighbor to several EU countries which means they basically border the Netherlands as the EU doesn't have internal borders. The Defcon status for Europe has been lowered to 2, which is Cuban Missile Crisis levels of danger. Due to Putin's speech the Baltics and Poland think they are next, and both the EU and NATO Treaties oblige a military intervention from the rest of Europe if that happens. And that would almost inevitably lead to nuclear war... I wouldn't be too worried if not for the fact that Putin is old and has way too much power. He might just decide that he doesn't give a fuck anymore and just sees how far he can push it and risk nuclear war. Maybe he will actually invade NATO/EU countries to see if we are actually willing to risk a nuclear holocaust for them. The real question is if it would get to a nuclear war… conventional means of warfare the US and Europe have the means of beating Russia if the US full commits its armies over there. Depends on what China does. And then there’s just a wildcard like North Korea… In the worst case scenario it’s NK, China and Russia against basically everyone else. In that case Europe is probably left to fend for itself while America has to deal with the two Asia opponents :/ although India is kinda a huge problem for China. Then there’s also Iran and Pakistan… |
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Post by Newan on Feb 24, 2022 16:33:42 GMT -5
I feel like China doesn’t want to get too involved though, they usually stay pretty neutral. It’s probably not in their best interest anyway as their economy is still growing whereas Russia is stagnant.
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Post by Newan on Feb 25, 2022 3:09:22 GMT -5
Yeah this is backfiring as of right now…. An entire division is Russian troops willingly surrendered because they didn’t want to kill Ukrainians in a nonsense war. They were told the invasion was for something else….
Ukraine is also winning on multiple fronts according to the news which shouldn’t be happening. Sounds like Putin sent in literally an army of inexperienced 18-20 year olds and it’s kind of an embarassment.
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Post by Kenbo on Feb 25, 2022 15:50:50 GMT -5
I heard about the Ghost of Kiev which may or may not be real but he sounds badass first Ace since WWII
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Post by Pinda on Feb 26, 2022 4:45:17 GMT -5
They believe about half the Russians supported the recognition of the two republic, but the other half will keep their mouths shut. The support for a full-scale invasion may be even lower. But as long as Putin's inner circle and China keep supporting him I doubt it will matter. I think we live in an age where people just want to work, relax and not have to worry about these kinds of things though. If they put some really aggressive sanctions on Russia to the point where is destroys the livelihoods of the average person I can’t imagine this will continue. China obviously could back them significantly but China is an exporter country, if much of the world refuses to buy from China their economy starts to cave as well. And a lot of Chinese industry from my understanding is owned by European and American companies. I doubt China will get directly involved, but if the West stops trading with Russia China will probably gladly take the opportunity of replacing that trade. I think China is trying to appear neutral, while secretly helping Russia. They don't want to be excluded from the global economy as well. And the Russians are already protesting, but they just get arrested for it. I don't think Putin is going to listen to them, even if they show up in large numbers. In fact, if they try to stage a coup that might actually be the most dangerous thing in this situation. It is known Putin fears being overthrown and killed by the masses like Gaddafi was. He might just decide to go nuclear before the people can deliver their justice. |
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Post by Pinda on Feb 26, 2022 4:54:25 GMT -5
It is getting A LOT of attention. We have a public newsbroadcaster in the Netherlands, and they usually only create a new news program every few hours which then airs for 20 minutes and then we get other programs. Sometimes when something exceptional happens (like the 2015 terror attacks in Paris) you might see an extra broadcast that lasts a few hours at most. Today they have been airing non-stop. We even got people talking about World War III on TV even though Dutch TV is not that alarmist generally. All online news sites have frontpages that are just about Russia and Ukraine. So yeah, this is getting a lot of attention. This is the first major international armed conflict in Europe since World War II (the Yugoslav wars were civil wars). So this is a really big deal. Besides, Ukraine is neighbor to several EU countries which means they basically border the Netherlands as the EU doesn't have internal borders. The Defcon status for Europe has been lowered to 2, which is Cuban Missile Crisis levels of danger. Due to Putin's speech the Baltics and Poland think they are next, and both the EU and NATO Treaties oblige a military intervention from the rest of Europe if that happens. And that would almost inevitably lead to nuclear war... I wouldn't be too worried if not for the fact that Putin is old and has way too much power. He might just decide that he doesn't give a fuck anymore and just sees how far he can push it and risk nuclear war. Maybe he will actually invade NATO/EU countries to see if we are actually willing to risk a nuclear holocaust for them. The real question is if it would get to a nuclear war… conventional means of warfare the US and Europe have the means of beating Russia if the US full commits its armies over there. Depends on what China does. And then there’s just a wildcard like North Korea… In the worst case scenario it’s NK, China and Russia against basically everyone else. In that case Europe is probably left to fend for itself while America has to deal with the two Asia opponents :/ although India is kinda a huge problem for China. Then there’s also Iran and Pakistan… The Cold War era dogma is that a direct confrontation between two nuclear powers will inevitably escalate into nuclear war, which in turn will end human life on the northern hemisphere. That is why it never happened. The US understood it and so did the Soviets. The Soviet leaders were all pretty rational. The question is, does the same apply to Putin? The experts here are saying his speech shows he has totally lost his mind and he might do unpredictable things. Now, that might just be intentional to scare us into thinking he would destroy the world if he is pushed (the madman theory). But it is scary to think he might actually be going mad. The Chinese leadership sucks, but Xi is rational as well. He doesn't want nuclear war either. There is no way he will fight NATO directly. North-Korea probably just wouldn't get involved either and reap the benefits of the chaos. I can only see Iran joining Russia. I think it is possible for the war to stay conventional for some time. Maybe Putin would retreat immediately after that once he understands NATO is serious. But if it continues beyond an initial clash, inevitably someone has to start winning and that is when nuclear weapons will be used. |
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Post by Newan on Feb 27, 2022 8:17:37 GMT -5
Not sure how reliable the source is but regardless the whole speed in the invasion and the setbacks don’t look good for Russia
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Post by Newan on Feb 27, 2022 8:18:35 GMT -5
Huh I forgot I added that Twitter embedded years ago
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Post by Newan on Feb 27, 2022 8:21:11 GMT -5
I think we live in an age where people just want to work, relax and not have to worry about these kinds of things though. If they put some really aggressive sanctions on Russia to the point where is destroys the livelihoods of the average person I can’t imagine this will continue. China obviously could back them significantly but China is an exporter country, if much of the world refuses to buy from China their economy starts to cave as well. And a lot of Chinese industry from my understanding is owned by European and American companies. I doubt China will get directly involved, but if the West stops trading with Russia China will probably gladly take the opportunity of replacing that trade. I think China is trying to appear neutral, while secretly helping Russia. They don't want to be excluded from the global economy as well. And the Russians are already protesting, but they just get arrested for it. I don't think Putin is going to listen to them, even if they show up in large numbers. In fact, if they try to stage a coup that might actually be the most dangerous thing in this situation. It is known Putin fears being overthrown and killed by the masses like Gaddafi was. He might just decide to go nuclear before the people can deliver their justice. China has no reason to tank their growing economy but I agree they might try and back Russia in secret. Regardless I think Putin probably knows he’s not getting re-elected without a lot of resistance next time. |
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Post by Newan on Mar 1, 2022 20:48:40 GMT -5
There’s 1000s of veterans and nurses going over to the Ukraine now from all parts of the western world… I think Ukraine is really gonna hold out. The Russian logistics just look abysmal.
I really think Russia was hoping that the fear of the USSR was still standing. It seems like they have not acclimated to the times but then again basically anyone older than 50 was an adult back during the USSR and older men like Putin were definitely working for that regime
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Post by Maverick-Jedi-Valen on Mar 2, 2022 12:57:37 GMT -5
There’s 1000s of veterans and nurses going over to the Ukraine now from all parts of the western world… I think Ukraine is really gonna hold out. The Russian logistics just look abysmal. I really think Russia was hoping that the fear of the USSR was still standing. It seems like they have not acclimated to the times but then again basically anyone older than 50 was an adult back during the USSR and older men like Putin were definitely working for that regime Even China isn't looking too sure about this, hence their lack of any support. This is basically going to be to Russia what Afghanistan was to the Soviets in the 80s. Another pointless, embarrassing defeat/stalemate. |
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Post by Newan on Mar 10, 2022 15:08:10 GMT -5
The Russian economy is going to go under within a month… I really don’t see how they fix it as this point.
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Post by Newan on Jan 23, 2023 12:02:49 GMT -5
Maverick-Jedi-Valen So I’m kind of curious… what has the fallout of Brexit been? I know it was a huge deal a couple years ago, but has anything really come of it? I know it was gonna be a slow transition and I don’t think the EU was really breaking off that fast.
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Post by Maverick-Jedi-Valen on Jan 23, 2023 16:39:57 GMT -5
Maverick-Jedi-Valen So I’m kind of curious… what has the fallout of Brexit been? I know it was a huge deal a couple years ago, but has anything really come of it? I know it was gonna be a slow transition and I don’t think the EU was really breaking off that fast. Honestly, it's hard to tell. Covid and this cost of living crisis has made it difficult to tell what affect brexit has had. Although, without EU subsidies for farmers, it had gotten tougher for them. Also, I've noticed some supermarkets limit the boxes of eggs you can have which is concerning. And then there's the fact more polls are suggesting the populace is kinda rethinking things and believing going back to the EU wouldn't be such a stupid idea. |
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Post by Newan on Jan 24, 2023 18:16:58 GMT -5
Maverick-Jedi-Valen So I’m kind of curious… what has the fallout of Brexit been? I know it was a huge deal a couple years ago, but has anything really come of it? I know it was gonna be a slow transition and I don’t think the EU was really breaking off that fast. Honestly, it's hard to tell. Covid and this cost of living crisis has made it difficult to tell what affect brexit has had. Although, without EU subsidies for farmers, it had gotten tougher for them. Also, I've noticed some supermarkets limit the boxes of eggs you can have which is concerning. And then there's the fact more polls are suggesting the populace is kinda rethinking things and believing going back to the EU wouldn't be such a stupid idea. Ah yeah I guess Covid would have messed up the whole process, honestly didn’t really think of that when I asked the question. Wasn’t the Brexit vote like super close? Or maybe I’m thinking of the Scottish independence vote. I’m not surprised that many people would be reconsidering the EU after covid though. Although all I really know is historical stuff tbh and I would never really consider England to be the same as continental Europe in that regard tbh |
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Post by Maverick-Jedi-Valen on Jan 25, 2023 16:50:14 GMT -5
Honestly, it's hard to tell. Covid and this cost of living crisis has made it difficult to tell what affect brexit has had. Although, without EU subsidies for farmers, it had gotten tougher for them. Also, I've noticed some supermarkets limit the boxes of eggs you can have which is concerning. And then there's the fact more polls are suggesting the populace is kinda rethinking things and believing going back to the EU wouldn't be such a stupid idea. Ah yeah I guess Covid would have messed up the whole process, honestly didn’t really think of that when I asked the question. Wasn’t the Brexit vote like super close? Or maybe I’m thinking of the Scottish independence vote. I’m not surprised that many people would be reconsidering the EU after covid though. Although all I really know is historical stuff tbh and I would never really consider England to be the same as continental Europe in that regard tbh Basically, both votes were close lol Think at this point people are wanting solutions to this cost of living crisis that's gripping us. Although even EU countries are suffering too, so not sure rejoining would change that much. That said, I can see us one having a vote to potentially go back and it could likely swing the way of returning. Scottish independence is just a pipe dream though |
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Post by Newan on Jan 26, 2023 21:55:42 GMT -5
Ah yeah I guess Covid would have messed up the whole process, honestly didn’t really think of that when I asked the question. Wasn’t the Brexit vote like super close? Or maybe I’m thinking of the Scottish independence vote. I’m not surprised that many people would be reconsidering the EU after covid though. Although all I really know is historical stuff tbh and I would never really consider England to be the same as continental Europe in that regard tbh Basically, both votes were close lol Think at this point people are wanting solutions to this cost of living crisis that's gripping us. Although even EU countries are suffering too, so not sure rejoining would change that much. That said, I can see us one having a vote to potentially go back and it could likely swing the way of returning. Scottish independence is just a pipe dream though I don’t think there can really be any changes to cost of living until the conflict in Ukraine is resolved tbh… Russia can never really win. They are struggling against a nation that was apart of their Union 30 years ago. No matter what Russia does at this point they lose. I don’t think they can realistically “win” without Nukes and at that point all of their “economic allies” will turn on them, I’m willing to bet India and China are behind the scenes telling them not to go that route. If Russia withdraws they will no longer be viewed as a world superpower, not that realistically they probably are anymore. I think at the moment there’s only 3 true economic superpowers being the USA, China, and Germany could be argued. Then there’s a lot of fringe ones some declining and some rising. Britain. France, India. Saudi Arabia, etc. Although everyone has their own flaws these days. For China Covid has immensely affected them for example and their counter measures are not cheap. I don’t think the result of Brexif will be truly measured for I guess a couple decades. |
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it’s been quite a while. I’ve been pretty good, how about yourself? 